Nearly two years by various factors, copper prices rose sharply, and the recent weakness and trump trade protection policy aspects of the uncertainty caused by the market in a confused state, the copper market to become the focus of attention in the future. In Shanghai in March 23, the non-ferrous metal industry association and Shanghai non-ferrous nets (SMM) jointly held the "Shanghai copper aluminum summit" copper special guest interviews, Anhui Truchum Advanced Materials and Technology Co., Ltd., vice general manager of le big silver, chinalco central China copper industry Co., Ltd., deputy managing director KaiTong Cao Qi wen, ningbo international trade Co., Ltd. General manager Mr Wu Chuang fai, Shanghai metals copper industry, a senior analyst at Keith yip for us to explore the pattern of the copper market in 2018, companies from their own orders, sales discuss some views for copper prices. In addition, the assistant general manager of Zhejiang Hailiang Co., ltd. left the SMM summit site in advance for the company matters, but recorded video before the guest interview

Swim kai hua: zhejiang hailiang shares is a subsidiary of hailiang group, listed in January 2008, our main business is copper processing, processed products are mainly used for air conditioning refrigeration, automobile electronic parts, etc., is a domestic and international well-known copper processing enterprises. From the previous two months, our orders kept growing by more than 20%, and the overall market was in short supply. The combination of air conditioning and real estate sales is very strong. This year we forecast that the air conditioning industry is still optimistic, maintaining a growth rate of over 20%. From the current real estate sales data to see a sharp decline, year-on-year decline is more. This year, the air conditioning industry is likely to have a very small growth rate of about 30% in 2017, and the steady growth is still expected. Brass or excess capacity at present, we are going to participate in market competition from the technical and cost leadership, excess capacity will make further improve industry concentration, the more excellent resources to focus on more excellent enterprise, made us less consumption, make more good and inexpensive products, this is also our contribution for the society. The enterprise should be on the premise of the innovation of investment strategy, risk control and management technology, which will be the trend of further improvement of industry concentration. Now copper prices are in a relatively normal range, and the value of the copper price is affected by many factors, and the overall price remains optimistic.

Ye jianhua: in March, when a copper consumption was just recovering, what was the consumption situation in March? Want excuse me from the current sales situation, consumption is a strong or a weak conditions, and from the perspective of the situation of current orders growth, what are the main industry orders have a better growth? Judging from the SMM survey, the copper market is much better than it was in 2017. Cao Qi: thank you very much for giving us such a chance host to communicate with the industry elite, the host asked me supply and demand situation in the current market including orders, take this opportunity to make a brief introduction, I am a representative from chinalco of China copper block, chinalco, from mining to mineral processing, smelting, processing to cover the entire series, in order to enlarge, optimal copper processing sector, according to the requirements of the strategy for our chinalco's integrate all of the processing, from raw materials to product all consolidation. We have four processing enterprises below. All products are fully covered from pipes, rods, plates and poles, and the current order is characterized by a word that is stable. Copper, which is used as a metaphor for copper processing in luoyang, is up 20 percent. As you can see these two days, the copper price is very sensitive through the analysis of our professional institutions, including many experts and industry elites. From domestic and international policy is very important to us, on the one hand, traditional industry, everyone knows that countries have already set the main tone, our country economy from rapid growth to the growth of high quality. High-end manufacturing and electronic quality will also advance by leaps and bounds. So from the perspective of 2018, we believe that high-end manufacturing includes the electronic information industry, including the new energy industry will have a surging demand. Keith yip: wu always you introduce us to also look at some of the micro change from trade Angle, wu always own macro point of view more, a trade war for many commodities have a big impact, what do you think about the current market funding or macro performance? Wu Chuang fai: I am ningbo KaiTong, our company is in ningbo, a local state-owned trading company, after years of operation, basically, copper, aluminum, zinc mainly supply local factories in zhejiang province and the customer. The proportion of copper is high, accounting for 80-90%. Since the beginning of the year, some orders from downstream customers have shown that copper is relatively stable compared with last year, and the copper strip has increased by about 10% to 20%. Years of tracking down and take a look at contact, copper rod, copper belt downstream customers is to look at the absolute price, through the copper aluminum sharp decline after the Spring Festival, appeared a lot of orders, the market think the price is ok. Also, the bank's interest rate has reached 6% in the last few weeks, which may have a big impact on the flow of funds. Including some downstream of the copper belt factory has a certain accounting period, choose not to receive orders, because the capital turnover not to come over, relative to your original processing fee, its processing and utilization of funds is lower. Ye jianhua: the processing of chinalco is fully covered. Now we look at the whole industrial chain of copper. How does cao think about the development of the processing market in the future? What do you think will be the future of this market? Cao qiwen: the production capacity of the copper processing industry under the aluminum corporation of China is up to 700,000 tons, but now only take the strip as an example. The production capacity of the copper processing strip is 200,000 tons, which is actually not enough. Now as a competitive plate of copper plate, the living space is very limited. Long ago, the national industrial structure, the enterprise itself, the copper strip competition is very fierce. Now black through industry reshuffle, including market economic laws, ferrous metallurgy processing enterprises, are now in order for advance payment, one is the national policy, the second is the self-discipline of the industry, three is the high and low quality. It is also a contribution to the development of the local economy from another aspect, but with the environmental protection of all aspects, including the requirements of quality, there must be a shuffling. Ye jianhua: our research on the color network also found such a phenomenon, the pattern of survival of the fittest is changing. Finally, a few simple words to describe the copper price, and from the price point of view, what is the biggest risk? Cao Qi: characteristics of the copper processing enterprises determine we very the attention of a path for copper, copper financial attributes of its impact on our manufacture is very big, our entire anticipation, this two days, many experts say their problems, as our processing enterprises concerned about most is what we are doing the risk of raw material, through the futures risk control is ok, but the high price of copper is a double-edged sword, the emergence of substitute products for our processing enterprises, some impact, these are in the positive attention. Wu Chuang fai: my own view, China's rise in demand is very strong, or we are still good economic resilience, a government report also said that GDP growth dropped to 6.9% from 6.5%, there are still pulling the bottom. I feel that the recent decline should be that the macro is too pessimistic, maybe the supply of black or other varieties is growing, but the supply of copper is not growing so strongly. Like copper scrap this one market, now a month or two research situation, may expect more tighter than years ago, so I think the price of copper may later or at the meeting. The biggest risk, I think, might come from the United States, in addition to the trade wars, and the U.S. stocks that have been rising for so many years. In addition, other experts at the meeting for copper future demand, supply, price and industry published views: Shanghai metals copper industry, a senior analyst at/Keith yip: copper consumption in China will enter a gentle slow growth in the next three years, range. Electric power, real estate and new energy vehicles are the main industries driving the steady growth of copper consumption. Copper prices are expected to continue to rise in 2018, with LME copper running at $6,400 to $7,800 / ton and SHFE copper running at 49,000 to 60,000 yuan/ton. Details see Keith yip: copper raw material supply in systolic in low consumption is expected to moderate growth, futures chief economist GuJing sichuan: the supply side of the reform will still impact on commodities in 2018, only efforts will weaken. On the supply side, given the domestic supply-side reform and environmental impact, the supply side of the self-pricing products will largely offset or exceed the disadvantage of the demand side. So independent pricing of goods and global pricing will ultimately depend on who is more dominant in terms of supply and demand. The next three to five years, the first domestic economy has showed signs of weaker marginal, and foreign economy is still in recovery, so closely related to foreign economic non-ferrous and crude oil will still be a good will probably continue to rise. In the past, the rotation sequence of commodities has been industrial products such as black and colored, then crude oil, and finally precious metals. If foreign economies continue to perform well, then color and crude oil will do better relative to domestic black. In addition, as the overall economy enters the middle and later stages, a rebound in inflation expectations will lead to higher prices for agricultural products. If we look at it from a longer period, we should be concerned about the impact of One Belt And One Road strategy on commodities, after all, the whole One Belt And One Road economy is still very large. " Zhu yi, director of global metals and mining at Bloomberg: supply-side reform will still have an impact on commodities in 2018, but will only weaken. Big companies will benefit from supply-side reforms, with overall debt shrinking, profits rising, industry concentration and pricing power rising. Low end capacity, a shortage of high-end capacity, and a potential shortage of ore supplies in the next three years. Congolese mining law: the cost of cobalt and copper will increase and support prices. " In the short term, copper supply exceeds demand, but because of the strike, it is difficult to predict accurately. In the long run, copper supplies are relatively tight. Annual copper consumption in China is relatively stable, but there will be some growth in the rest of the world. Especially after 2020, the global supply of copper will not be too optimistic. Details see Marc Bailey: refined copper consumption 2% over the next three years to keep moderate growth VIANT commodities in executive director Julie Zhu: a greater influence on the new energy of copper and nickel: 1, the total demand for electric cars from 3 million units this year to 27 million vehicles in 2027; 2. Copper demand of electric vehicles, copper demand in electric vehicle field or accounting for about 6% of global copper demand, this year is less than 1%; 3. Copper demand for charging piles: in 2020, there are 12,000 charging stations in China, with 4.8 million distributed charging piles; Therefore, in 2018, new energy will demand 66,000 tons of copper, which will gradually increase from less than 1%, or can reach 6% of the forecast by 2027. Liu shifang, senior adviser to Woodmac: the price of copper will recover steadily. From the point of view of the mine, the two years have gradually shifted from surplus to shortage, but from a metal point of view, the inventory is still above the historical equilibrium level, and the average level is over 60 days. At present, metal inventory will be decreasing year by year. From the point of price, Woodmac don't think there is a big rise or conference this year, but the price is not as it used to be back in a low price, is likely to be a relatively stable in a higher position. But after 2020 or 2021 as mine supply is insufficient, and the shortage of conduction to the metal from the ore end, prices will rise sharply, this price rise is likely to stimulate the mining companies to make further investment, could lead to more copper supplies for the future growth. The long-term copper price predicted by Woodmac is more than $3.3 in real dollars in 2018. Details see the "liu si: 2018 global copper supply pattern Copper prices will be stable recovery ", chairman of the China renewable resources industry technology innovation strategic alliance, China nonferrous metals industry association renewable metal branch technical director Li Shilong: global copper consumption is expected to continue to grow. The growth of population and economy in 2030 will lead to 10.4 million tons of copper demand in residential/household appliances and infrastructure. The power shift to renewable energy, solar photovoltaic (pv) will demand 6.5 million tons of copper, and wind power will demand 3.3 million tons of copper. Transport to electric and self-driving vehicles (light vehicles, rail transit, electric buses) is expected to boost copper demand by 9.4 million tons. In the future, China's renewable copper industry are the main challenges, according to the type of waste, the content of copper and other metals are simultaneously smelting, will isolate the metal elements of higher value than copper, obtain higher economic benefits. China's growth is the fastest, the biggest and the most challenging. In the future, the profit center of copper is moving downstream, and the main challenge for the renewable copper enterprises lies in whether they can extend the product chain and achieve higher economic benefits. More details on li shilong: the impact on supply of global copper consumption is expected to continue to be affected by the limitation of seven categories of imports.